For me the critical question is the point you bring up, whether new entrants will erode their GLP-1 market share. I don't know much about pharma patents: is the magic possible to patent? There's a big difference between a monopoly on a revolutionary technology and just being the first mover in what will become an ultra competitive market with low margins.
That's the key question indeed. Numerous pharma companies are all racing to develop the best GLP-1 drugs in terms of both effectiveness and safety. Novo is also working on new GLP-1 drugs in an attempt to remain market leader, but new entrants will more likely than not drive returns down.
For me the critical question is the point you bring up, whether new entrants will erode their GLP-1 market share. I don't know much about pharma patents: is the magic possible to patent? There's a big difference between a monopoly on a revolutionary technology and just being the first mover in what will become an ultra competitive market with low margins.
That's the key question indeed. Numerous pharma companies are all racing to develop the best GLP-1 drugs in terms of both effectiveness and safety. Novo is also working on new GLP-1 drugs in an attempt to remain market leader, but new entrants will more likely than not drive returns down.
So it is fairly valued in your calculation?
Yes, although my calculations are conservative in my opinion. I'm currently investigating the company further to make a buy decision.
Amazing article as always! One of the companies to keep an eye on during those turbulent times!
Thanks!
Great article as always and very concise view of where Novo is now and the growing competition in GLP-1!
Great breakdown, thanks for posting this one.
You’re welcome 🙌