Let me clarify. In Novo's earnings call, they highlighted they have a 71% market share in International Operations across the GLP-1 portfolio (so excluding insulin and some of their other drugs).
International Operations excludes the U.S. and Canada.
Now, there are over 900 million obese people globally, and less than 1% (~4 million) of those are treated with branded medication, not just from Novo Nordisk but branded medication in general.
In International Operations, Novo treats about 11 million patients with GLP-1, but that includes diabetes patients. It can get confusing mixing up obese and diabetes patients, but Novo's IO GLP-1 market share equals 11 million patients, which is 71% of the total market share.
That helps and clarifies that math behind the numbers.
I have two follow-ups if you'd like to discuss.
1. Do you know why the penetration is low sub 1%?
2. I am thinking they can go after the retail. Lilly too. This relates to the above. Somewhat similar to HIMS. To create a distribution platform for personalized drugs. What do you think?
A big reason why penetration is low is pricing and the fact that these are discretionary drugs. As an obese person, you don't "have" to use these drugs to lose weight.
Moreover, this is more anecdotal, but I believe awareness of drugs like Wegovy is also relatively low outside of the U.S.
And don't forget Wegovy was approved in 2021. Drugs specifically aimed at losing weight are still very new.
So to answer your first question, it's a mixture of pricing, general availability, the discretionary nature of the drugs, the fact that they're brand new, and overall awareness.
Thank you. Are you saying 71% market share is based on ~ 9 million customers (the ~ 1%)? Did I get your math correct? Is that from NVO docs?
"we’re talking about 900 million obese people globally. Fewer than 1% are treated with branded medication.
If just another 1% of those 900 million receive treatment, the market doubles. "
Hey, thanks for your interest.
Let me clarify. In Novo's earnings call, they highlighted they have a 71% market share in International Operations across the GLP-1 portfolio (so excluding insulin and some of their other drugs).
International Operations excludes the U.S. and Canada.
Now, there are over 900 million obese people globally, and less than 1% (~4 million) of those are treated with branded medication, not just from Novo Nordisk but branded medication in general.
In International Operations, Novo treats about 11 million patients with GLP-1, but that includes diabetes patients. It can get confusing mixing up obese and diabetes patients, but Novo's IO GLP-1 market share equals 11 million patients, which is 71% of the total market share.
Hope that explains some things!
Thank you.
That helps and clarifies that math behind the numbers.
I have two follow-ups if you'd like to discuss.
1. Do you know why the penetration is low sub 1%?
2. I am thinking they can go after the retail. Lilly too. This relates to the above. Somewhat similar to HIMS. To create a distribution platform for personalized drugs. What do you think?
Always happy to discuss.
A big reason why penetration is low is pricing and the fact that these are discretionary drugs. As an obese person, you don't "have" to use these drugs to lose weight.
Moreover, this is more anecdotal, but I believe awareness of drugs like Wegovy is also relatively low outside of the U.S.
And don't forget Wegovy was approved in 2021. Drugs specifically aimed at losing weight are still very new.
So to answer your first question, it's a mixture of pricing, general availability, the discretionary nature of the drugs, the fact that they're brand new, and overall awareness.
To answer your second question, Novo already operates a distribution platform with NovoCare pharmacy: https://www.novocare.com/obesity/products/wegovy/get-product.html
Customers can purchase Wegovy through this "cash channel" as they call it, and Ozempic will be available through a similar channel later this year.
Hope that helps!
Thank you. Happy to discuss as well and exchange ideas/reasoning.
I have deep dive podcasts and the 6K lined up for listening and reading!
I think you are right it's worth buying a position. Haven't decided sizing though!