July 2025 - Portfolio Letter
Volatile earnings and new possible positions
Welcome to the July 2025 Portfolio Letter.
What Worked (And What Didn’t)
I published 11 articles in July, up from 8 in June.
The increase is mostly thanks to earnings season. I shared my thoughts and updated valuations on ASML, Evolution, Google, Basic-Fit, and Novo Nordisk.
But the month kicked off with two posts on Monte Carlo DCF valuation.
In last month’s Portfolio Letter, I mentioned how my posts on pricing power underperformed. Likely because the concept felt too basic. You demand more, and that’s what I aimed to deliver with Monte Carlo.
The Monte Carlo tool improves the valuation process by giving you a distribution of outcomes, which better reflects future uncertainty.
In the first post, I explained how it works using a practical example, with some help from Aswath Damodaran. It now has 1,027 views and a 36.72% open rate (above my 30-day average of 35%).
The follow-up post went a step further. I valued two companies using Monte Carlo and included a downloadable Excel model exclusive to premium members. That one reached 1,153 views with a 35.98% open rate.
Both posts on Monte Carlo were well-received by you.
Halfway through the month, we pushed out another update for Summit’s Analytics: an improved stock and ROIC chart, an entirely new chart, revenue growth rates, and a new favorites page. We’re not nearly where we want to be yet. Expect another update this month.
This month’s stock thesis covered Pool Corp, a strong wholesale distributor of pool supplies and equipment. The post resonated: over 1,100 views.
But I’m realizing the monthly stock theses’ might not be actionable enough for premium members. The current process goes something like:
Research a stock
Publish the thesis with a buy or don’t buy
Move on to the next one
I do include actionable valuation guidance at the end of each post, but it’s not enough.
So this month, I’ll start working on an archive. A watchlist of previously researched stocks, with buying ranges and other relevant info. It’ll likely start as a spreadsheet, but I might later integrate it into the website or Substack page.
After the Pool Corp post, every article—except one on Copart—focused on earnings updates. These were better received than past updates. I’ve tried to make them more comprehensive, add more of my own commentary, and include updated valuations.
The Copart post was more of a follow-up than a deep dive. I covered the stock last year, but its poor performance YTD warranted another look. The post has 1,101 views and a 36.62% open rate.
Subscriber growth continues steadily. Two new premium members joined in July, along with 50 new free subscribers.
Thank you so much: every new subscriber pushes me to do better.
Views were also up this month. Writing more helped, but performance per article was stronger as well.
Performance Update
The portfolio performed strongly this month, right up until Novo Nordisk dropped a profit warning. A key driver of that early strength was the additional purchase of Evolution shares early in the month.
So far, that’s been a good call.
But by the end of the month, performance is flat.
I discussed Novo Nordisk’s profit warning in a separate post. To put things into context: this is still a company growing at double digits, operating in a rapidly expanding market, holding a dominant position, reinvesting heavily, and trading at a P/E of 10.
Yes, the stock’s decline isn’t entirely unjustified, but it does look harsh. I think too harsh. It’s uncomfortable, but I continue to hold Novo Nordisk with no plans to sell.
Having said that, here’s the performance since inception:
