February 2026 - Portfolio Update
2 sales, 3 purchases
Welcome to the February 2026 portfolio update.
January started off well, but February completely reversed those gains for me. My portfolio plummeted, largely due to Novo Nordisk. Duolingo and Adobe also performed poorly this month, and even Amazon had a weak month.
I clearly made a mistake when I invested in Novo Nordisk last year. I underestimated regulatory and political risk and invested outside my circle of competence. 2026 looks extremely challenging for Novo Nordisk despite its first-to-market weight loss pill, especially compared to Eli Lilly, which expects revenue growth over 20%.
For my other holdings that declined this month, I remain confident. I have high conviction in Duolingo, especially at these prices. Yes, 2026 guidance was weaker than expected, but there are clear and understandable reasons for this. The 2028 guidance of 100 million DAUs shows the company is far from done growing. As the user base grows, monetization follows.
In addition, the company announced a $400 million share repurchase program to be completed this year. That is nearly 10% of the current market cap.
I have spoken at length about Adobe and Salesforce, as I do not believe in the SaaSpocalypse. I think these firms will ultimately benefit from AI rather than be disrupted by it. In fact, they are already monetizing AI.
I am not worried about these investments, and my conviction remains high.
In February, we reworked Summit’s Analytics, the stock research website available to paid subscribers.
The website is now called Capaxe, a more distinct name from the newsletter because the offering is distinct. The core features remain the same, but we have drastically improved the design and user experience. We are also continuously working to improve the website and its capabilities.
For March, here is my preliminary post schedule:
March 4: Greggs Q4 2025 review and thesis update
March 11: Topicus Q4 2025 review and thesis update
March 12: Basic-Fit Q4 2025 review and thesis update
March 13: Adobe Q1 2026 review and thesis update
March 16: My biggest investing mistakes
March 23: Shopify investment thesisYou might have noticed the lack of a stock thesis post in February. I was researching Coupang, the “South Korean Amazon,” but concluded during my research that it is outside my circle of competence and comes with many unknowns. Moreover, I already own Amazon.
I ended the thesis work prematurely and decided it was better not to publish a thesis than to publish one I do not fully stand behind. I am not saying Coupang is a bad investment. I simply do not know enough about the company to form an opinion. I also do not think it is worth my time to continue pursuing this stock.
For March, I’m looking to revisit Shopify. I have written once about the company back in 2024, but I was reluctant and did not purchase shares. Shares are now in decline again and they might present a great opportunity. Shopify is a fascinating business for sure.
You will also notice that I have only five posts planned for March so far. I am leaving space at the end of the month for content on recent developments that I cannot plan in advance.
Finally, I scheduled my Topicus update for March 11 because I am awaiting Constellation Software’s earnings call on March 10.
Portfolio Update
