Great breakdown. Out of curiosity, when I was analyzing this business myself I stumbled upon a short thesis on Copart in the Value Investor Club which posited that it was going to lose market share to its main competitor as they were at peak market share, and its competitor had reached the maximum it could fumble. The short was successful, but not 100% clear whether for this reason. In my opinion, it could be very possible that this was the main cause of the slowdown, on top of the cyclical headwinds the business faces. Is this something you've had a look at? Do you know anything about this?
Thanks Paul. Copart's main competitor is IAA, which has really been an inferior business over the past few decades. As a result, Copart has been able to take market share for many years. Yet since RB Global's acquisition of IAA, there is some reversal, but I'm not worried.
I'm sure IAA has improved some of its operations, which has led insurers to flock more to IAA. But from an insurer's perspective, this makes a lot of sense. Insurers don't want to do business with just Copart. If Copart becomes a monopoly, insurers will get squeezed. So over the long term, it makes the most sense that the market share split between Copart and IAA will be around 50-50.
I agree with you that IAA's market share gains might have impacted Copart's growth, in addition to the reasons I've mentioned. These remain short term headwinds, so I'm not really worried.
Really great article thank you. I quoted you below from the article. This is really the crux. Personally I just can’t predict how the business model will evolve even though I love the current business.
I have seen some stats saying Tesla FSD is 7-10 x less likely to have an accident than a human (based on accidents per mile driven). That’s just a big number to comprehend - and then map against total loss frequency. (And I still agree with you that AV adoption will be slower than expected).
Great write up, one thing though, with respect to their Op margins they aren’t as good as they initially seem. Copart capitalizes them, where if one were to include them as an operating expense instead (which is logical) their op margins and ROIC drop.
Thanks a lot. I assume you mean Copart capitalizes the land they purchase, whereas IAA instead leases, which would appear in the income statement.
But while capex of purchasing land flows through the cash flow statement, Copart's operating expenses for land are accounted for through D&A. By purchasing land instead of leasing, it's not like Copart has found some secret way to forgo any costs.
If you'd consider capex as an operating expense (which I assume is what you mean) you'd be double counting (capex and D&A).
Copart’s edge is structural, but earnings are still cyclical. When sentiment shifts, price often overshoots fundamentals. The real question isn’t “is it a great business?” It’s “what growth rate is already priced in?
Thanks for your insights, and I completely agree with you. Do you work in the industry by any chance, since you've seen insurers struggle with totaled vehicles? Or just an outside perspective?
Great breakdown. Out of curiosity, when I was analyzing this business myself I stumbled upon a short thesis on Copart in the Value Investor Club which posited that it was going to lose market share to its main competitor as they were at peak market share, and its competitor had reached the maximum it could fumble. The short was successful, but not 100% clear whether for this reason. In my opinion, it could be very possible that this was the main cause of the slowdown, on top of the cyclical headwinds the business faces. Is this something you've had a look at? Do you know anything about this?
Thanks Paul. Copart's main competitor is IAA, which has really been an inferior business over the past few decades. As a result, Copart has been able to take market share for many years. Yet since RB Global's acquisition of IAA, there is some reversal, but I'm not worried.
I'm sure IAA has improved some of its operations, which has led insurers to flock more to IAA. But from an insurer's perspective, this makes a lot of sense. Insurers don't want to do business with just Copart. If Copart becomes a monopoly, insurers will get squeezed. So over the long term, it makes the most sense that the market share split between Copart and IAA will be around 50-50.
I agree with you that IAA's market share gains might have impacted Copart's growth, in addition to the reasons I've mentioned. These remain short term headwinds, so I'm not really worried.
I love the use of base rates here
Thanks Smaug, we're looking to implement that at some point on our stock platform (summitsanalytics.com).
For every stock you'd see a large peer group with base rates, and of course, we'd also rely on Mauboussin's research. Would you be interested in that?
YES VERY
Really great article thank you. I quoted you below from the article. This is really the crux. Personally I just can’t predict how the business model will evolve even though I love the current business.
I have seen some stats saying Tesla FSD is 7-10 x less likely to have an accident than a human (based on accidents per mile driven). That’s just a big number to comprehend - and then map against total loss frequency. (And I still agree with you that AV adoption will be slower than expected).
Thanks again. Super clear.
You’re welcome, glad you enjoyed it!
Great write up, one thing though, with respect to their Op margins they aren’t as good as they initially seem. Copart capitalizes them, where if one were to include them as an operating expense instead (which is logical) their op margins and ROIC drop.
Thanks a lot. I assume you mean Copart capitalizes the land they purchase, whereas IAA instead leases, which would appear in the income statement.
But while capex of purchasing land flows through the cash flow statement, Copart's operating expenses for land are accounted for through D&A. By purchasing land instead of leasing, it's not like Copart has found some secret way to forgo any costs.
If you'd consider capex as an operating expense (which I assume is what you mean) you'd be double counting (capex and D&A).
Happy to hear your thoughts
I understand what you mean. I’ll write a post about how I think about it and link it! Easier to flesh out that way then via back and forth comments 🙂
Sure, excited to read it!
Fin - https://thepursuitofcompounding.substack.com/p/copart-the-real-estate-king-of-the?r=xy3ae
Great article!
Fantastic write up
Thank you Blake 🙌
Copart’s edge is structural, but earnings are still cyclical. When sentiment shifts, price often overshoots fundamentals. The real question isn’t “is it a great business?” It’s “what growth rate is already priced in?
Thanks for your insights, and I completely agree with you. Do you work in the industry by any chance, since you've seen insurers struggle with totaled vehicles? Or just an outside perspective?